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Ammonia - The 10 Year Outlook
Market Forecasts

Ammonia - The 10 Year Forecast
Ammonia - The 10 Year Outlook
2008 December Issue
Executive Summary


Since October 2008, the following crucial developments have influenced the ammonia market and BSC’s forecasts:

• Plummeting ammonia prices at all benchmarks.

• Receding prices for all nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

• Weak market conditions globally in all fertilizer sectors and the uncertainty of the global economic outlook.

• Sharp demand disruption from most fertilizer segments eliminating support for downstream ammonia utilization and resulting in NH3 stock accumulation. 

• The disconnection of market ammonia prices and input costs have resulted in many producers operating close to or below production costs and prompted a number of plant shutdowns worldwide. 

The impact of crashing oil and agricultural prices and the complete breakdown of trust and confidence in the financial sector have led to demand destruction in the fertilizer industry, which has fallen into the global economy trap.

Ammonia The Ten Year Forecast


Ammonia Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service Annual Report from British Sulphur Consultants

The Ammonia Ten Year Forecast Report provides a concise analysis of the industry's prospects, supported by a unique set of statistical data, and includes forecasts of Ammonia Production, Ammonia Prices and Ammonia Demand to 2015. With this comprehensive document, both ammonia producers and ammonia consumers will have the fundamental information required to review their strategies to meet the challenges facing them in the medium-to-long term.

Ammonia is a vital precursor in numerous fertilizer and industrial products, and trends in the ammonia market therefore have far-reaching consequences. In 2005, ammonia prices peaked at record highs but declined significantly into 2006. Could this finally be the peak of the price cycle?

The international ammonia industry is undergoing significant change. Global energy markets have created striking geographic imbalances in the cost of natural gas.

The industry is adapting to new realities of relative competitiveness that will shape the distribution of plant closures and new investment.

Low cost locations have seen a flurry of project activity to capitalize on the relative advantage, but the “gold-rush” seems set to deliver over-capacity in the market, which would hasten the decline of uncompetitive production locations.

What, then, will the industry look like as and after it undergoes this transformation? Where will producers be forced out of the market and where will they be replaced? How will the centres of supply and demand influence trade patterns in the future? How will capacity developments and demand growth patterns affect prices?

These and other issues are addressed in detail by British Sulphur Consultants’ Ammonia Ten Year Forecast Report to 2015, available now. Throughout the year, the three Update Reports will address all the latest developments in this fast-paced market.

Components of the Service

The Ammonia Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service includes:

  • A paper copy of each quarterly report.
  • The same documents are available for the Update Reports through British Sulphur Consultants' online facility, for which subscribers to the Ammonia Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service are given free access.
  • Access to the authors for consultation.
  • Access to the Nitrogen quarterly conference calls following report publication.

    Contact
    For more information, please contact:

Stephen Ostercamp
Senior Account Manager, Business Development
tel: +44 20 7903 2129
fax: +44 20 7833 4342
email: Stephen.Ostercamp@crugroup.com


 

Ammonia Ten Year Outlook





 

BRITISH SULPHUR EVENTS Sulphur 08 International Conference & Exhibition
2-5 November 2008
Rome, Italy
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BRITISH SULPHUR EVENTS Nitrogen and Syngas Conference & Exhibition
22-25 February 2009
Rome, Italy
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