Ammonia Fertilizer Price Production report from British Sulphur Consultants

21 November 2008

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2008 October Issue

Ammonia The Ten Year Outlook 2008-09 Annual Report

Since the end of 2007, ammonia markets have been the subject of much excitement as they have entered a buoyant era for prices at all benchmarks, having established new record highs in the first quarter of the year and later followed by a new peak at over $800/t Black Sea.

Traditional second quarter seasonal price softening saw prices drop to the $440/t Black Sea level in May: although this “minimum” price was much higher than all previous “peak” prices in past years.
Increased exports from the new suppliers of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Australia did not ease the market tightness and were offset by the decline of traditional export product emanating from Canada, FSU or Poland.
Soaring natural gas prices contributed to increasing production cost concerns, although hardly impacting producers’ margins as ammonia market prices easily kept pace with higher costs.
Prices for most agricultural commodities remained strong in 2008 but have declined from their recent highs.

Ammonia The Ten Year Forecast

Ammonia Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service Annual Report from British Sulphur Consultants

The Ammonia Ten Year Forecast Report provides a concise analysis of the industry's prospects, supported by a unique set of statistical data, and includes forecasts of Ammonia Production, Ammonia Prices and Ammonia Demand to 2015. With this comprehensive document, both ammonia producers and ammonia consumers will have the fundamental information required to review their strategies to meet the challenges facing them in the medium-to-long term.

Ammonia is a vital precursor in numerous fertilizer and industrial products, and trends in the ammonia market therefore have far-reaching consequences. In 2005, ammonia prices peaked at record highs but declined significantly into 2006. Could this finally be the peak of the price cycle?

The international ammonia industry is undergoing significant change. Global energy markets have created striking geographic imbalances in the cost of natural gas.

The industry is adapting to new realities of relative competitiveness that will shape the distribution of plant closures and new investment.

Low cost locations have seen a flurry of project activity to capitalize on the relative advantage, but the “gold-rush” seems set to deliver over-capacity in the market, which would hasten the decline of uncompetitive production locations.

What, then, will the industry look like as and after it undergoes this transformation? Where will producers be forced out of the market and where will they be replaced? How will the centres of supply and demand influence trade patterns in the future? How will capacity developments and demand growth patterns affect prices?

These and other issues are addressed in detail by British Sulphur Consultants’ Ammonia Ten Year Forecast Report to 2015, available now. Throughout the year, the three Update Reports will address all the latest developments in this fast-paced market.

Components of the Service

The Ammonia Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service includes:

A paper copy of each quarterly report.
The same documents are available for the Update Reports through British Sulphur Consultants' online facility, for which subscribers to the Ammonia Ten Year Forecast and Market Analysis Service are given free access.
Access to the authors for consultation.
Access to the Nitrogen quarterly conference calls following report publication.

Contact
For more information, please contact:

Stephen Ostercamp
Senior Account Manager, Business Development
tel: +44 20 7903 2129
fax: +44 20 7833 4342
email: Stephen.Ostercamp@crugroup.com

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