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Tin Monitor
2009 June issue
The rocky road to recovery
  • World tin demand has rebounded after a very weak first quarter performance – when volumes are estimated to have fallen 29% year-on-year - but is still nowhere near strong enough to justify the recent run up in prices above $15,000/tonne. The market is still clearly over-supplied, as evidenced by the more than doubling of LME stocks since the start of the year, with inflows accelerating recently.

  • The price rise, as in other commodities, is all about anticipation of world economic recovery and the eagerness of investors to buy exposure to assets likely to respond positively to that -when it happens. One fund in particular continues to control a large proportion of LME tin warrants and also has a substantial long position focussed around September. As a result there is now a large backwardation of $700-800/tonne over the last four months of the year.

  • If world demand has recovered significantly by the end of the year, a big spike in prices is possible. However, there are only limited signs that such a revival is beginning to take shape. In the meantime a general correction in commodity prices and poor tin fundamentals are likely to result in lower prices in the third quarter.

  • A 12,000 tonne surplus is forecast for this year. Up to May China absorbed the world’s excess supply, but is no longer doing so. Therefore, LME stocks should continue to climb.
Tin Monitor


The Tin Monitor has been published since 1980 and is based on regular direct contacts with the leading players in the industry. It combines up-to-date statistical coverage, a comprehensive news round-up and a clear overview of the current state of the global market. As of the February 2007 issue, it has been produced as a joint venture between CRU and ITRI (formerly the International Tin Research Institute). This collaboration combines the strengths of ITRI and CRU to provide improved tin industry coverage and deliver an even more in-depth, dynamic publication.


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