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- Spot alumina prices have dropped over the past month on the back of a collapse in aluminium prices and the threat of further curtailments in smelting capacity.
- Curtailments in smelting capacity have been dominated by China, where at least 1.45m tpy of capacity has been idled. At the same time, we understand that nearly 7.8m tpy of Chinese refining capacity has been identified for closure.
- The curtailments in refining capacity is unlikely to prevent spot prices drifting lower near term, especially if aluminium prices weaken further from current levels.
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